Recently, I was explaining to a peer that Ohio does not have an enrollment problem; it has a migration problem. NC-SARA data shows that by 2024, more than 61,000 Ohio residents enrolled in fully online programs offered by out-of-state institutions. When I named the institutions that enroll the largest number of Ohio students, the response was immediate: “I don’t think we should compare ourselves to those institutions.
That answer reflects the most significant strategic misunderstanding in higher education today. Universities define their competitors in terms of institutional categories. Today’s students define their options in terms of cost, time and quality, accessibility and performance outcomes. The modern online student does not have to choose between an R-1 and a state university. They choose between an option that suits their health and an option that doesn’t.
Higher education often talks about innovation, but the biggest barriers to innovation are rarely external competitors. Obstacles are within. Semester-based calendars designed for residential students, common semester start dates, curriculum approval procedures, strict credit transfer policies, financial aid structures consistent with common goals and organizational structures that separate the academic and practical units of the market are all slow institutions.
Many institutions fear that expanding online programs will eat away at existing enrollees. In fact, online programs often reach an entirely different student population: working adults, transfer students, career changers and students who would otherwise not enroll at all. The number of times I have had to explain that these audiences are different is hard to count. The traditional residential student and the online adult student do not represent the same market, yet institutions often treat them as interchangeable.
Sometimes I wonder where I went wrong—not in my career choice, but in the way I position online education at the university. If I were to climb to the top of the tallest building on campus with a megaphone and sing, over and over, “They’re not the same,” I’m still not sure the message would get through. And yes, people could hear me, but are they listening?
The biggest competitor in online education is not another university; it is inedibility. It is the older student who decides that a degree is too expensive, too slow, too complicated or too flexible to pursue. When institutions focus only on competing with peer universities, they miss out on the enormous number of students who choose not to enroll anywhere at all.
The institutions that will grow in the next decade will not necessarily be the ones with the highest quality or the most programs. They will be institutions willing to change internally by revising policies, calendars, pricing, transfer models and program structures to serve the modern student. They will build employer partnerships, create cumulative guarantees, offer low barriers to entry, recognize credit for prior learning, offer multiple start dates and design programs for working adults rather than simply using an institution.
The real competition in online education is not other universities. The real competition is institutional inertia. Those who don’t switch will continue to watch students choose faster, cheaper, and more flexible options elsewhere or choose not to enroll at all.
