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Somalia’s rise in crime is raising fears of a Red Sea “security vacuum” across the region as analysts warn of a renewed maritime crime playbook, now linked to the Iran-backed Houthis.
This warning follows a May 2 report from the Yemeni security forces that armed men hijacked an oil tanker near Shabwa heading towards the Gulf of Aden, and the vessel has been recovered as efforts to repair it continue, Reuters reported.
“There is a significant shift in the maritime center of gravity amid a new phase of maritime instability in the region,” Ido Shalev, CEO of RTCOM Defense, told Fox News Digital.
“Groups linked to Somalia and the Houthis are teaming up – using boats and new technology to attack ships in a partnership not seen in a decade – while Saudi-backed fraud in the Strait of Hormuz has created a ‘rich target area for them,'” he added.
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Members of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) sit on a speed boat as they navigate the waters of the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Bosaso in the Autonomous Region of Puntland, Somalia. (Abdirahman Hussein/Reuters)
“There is an opportunistic alignment, with the Houthis providing geopolitical cover and advanced GPS and surveillance, and Somali groups providing boots on the ground or water skis,” Shalev said.
When the MT Eureka was removed from Shabwa, Shalev, a former Israeli navy officer, suggested that what he called the “Somalia model” should come back with “revenge.”
“This is a partnership, and in an area where the Houthis operate and would like to cause damage and support their IRGC sponsor,” he said before explaining how the pirates would hijack all the ships and cargo, taking them to a safe place “like Qandala or Garacad.”
“Then they demanded a ransom for the whole package: the ship, tens of millions of dollars in oil, and the workers,” he said.
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Groups linked to Somalia and the Houthis are coming together using skiffs and new technology to attack ships in a partnership not seen in a decade. (Jason R. Zalasky/US Navy via Getty Images)
The increase in regional risk is also exacerbated, said Shalev, due to the instability of the Strait of Hormuz. As Iranian-backed threats continue in the Persian Gulf, the world’s power dynamics are changing.
“Due to the closure and instability of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of crude a day through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu,” said the former Israeli military official.
“This creates a rich target environment in a sector that was previously a reverse lane. With Brent Crude prices on the rise – peaking at around $115/bbl this quarter – the reward for a successful hack has never been higher.”
The threat level in waters off Somalia was recently upgraded to “severe” following a wave of hijackings and attempted attacks that began on April 21, according to Windward AI and UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warnings.
At least three vessels were seized within days: a Somali-flagged vessel on April 21, followed by the Palau-flagged tanker Honor 25 (IMO 1099735), and, on April 26, a general cargo ship was seized and diverted to Garacad.
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The growing risk of regional crime is exacerbated by the instability of the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian-backed threats continue in the Persian Gulf and global power flows shift. (Multiple Communications Specialist 1st Class Cassandra Thompson/US Navy via Getty Images)
Shalev, who worked as the main architect of the Nigerian project “Falcon Eye” – a surveillance system that successfully reduced crime in those waters to 0% – warned that the disruption of the world’s naval vessels is being exploited.
“Because the navy is busy with missile threats, a ‘safeguard’ zone has been opened in the region, so pirates can travel long distances in skiffs to board vulnerable commercial ships,” he said.
“Crime in Somalia, which has been suppressed for years, has seen this resurgence related to the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,” Shalev said.
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The Red Sea carries 12% to 15% of global trade and 30% of container traffic, moving more than $1 trillion in goods annually, including oil and LNG, according to reports.
“The current crisis proves that you can’t ‘police’ your way out of this; you have to see the threat before it gets to the ship,” Shalev said.
