In Scottie Scheffler’s strange season of near misses, 1 trend emerged

Scottie Scheffler stares at the ball as it rises through the Texas sky. World No. 1 was from back-to-back birdies and had a green light wedge from 105 yards. He was on the hunt, trying to run down Si Woo Kim and hold off Wyndham Clark to defend his title in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Everyone thought that Scheffler, who started the final round two shots back, would eventually pass Kim and take the trophy. That’s what killers do. Of course, he could consolidate this record for a third straight birdie and be off to the races.

The ball landed on the flag, but this time the golf gods had a different plan. It hit the club and returned to the bottom of the green, leaving Scheffler with a 55-foot birdie putt. He made par and finished in third place, five shots behind Clark, who shot a final-round 11-under 60 to win.

“When you win tournaments, sometimes those are the ones who get in,” Scheffler said, laughing, after his round. “If you don’t win tournaments, they’re the ones who hit the pin and go 50, 60 meters.”

So Scottie Scheffler’s unusual year of misses continued the course he traversed last season en route to success.

Scheffler has now finished in the top three six times this season. He won his season opener at American Express, but the floodgates haven’t opened as expected. Scheffler still sits atop the leaderboard, but often finds himself chasing the trophy but unable to capture it.

Back in February at Pebble Beach, Rory McIlroy called Scheffler “relentless.” Nothing seemed strange to World No. 1. Not a bad round, a bad shot, or a bad break. He just kept coming. That week, Scheffler came out of the gates in Round 1 but continued with Sunday’s already short trial as he finished tied for fourth.

“One of my skills, and I feel like I’ve been able to get on a lot of leaderboards lately, is going into a round where I don’t have my best stuff,” Scheffler said that week at Pebble Beach. “I think these are the other weeks when you look back, I’m very proud of sticking with it, not giving up even when I feel like things are going well for me this week. I keep fighting, I keep trying to hit the shot, I keep trying to get it out.”

Cooldowns by Scheffler’s standards followed when he finished T12 at the Genesis and T24 at the Arnold Palmer in his next two starts. At the Players Championship, Scheffler was asked about how he handles expectations. Since breaking out in 2022, Scottie Scheffler has won big and won everywhere. That level of dominance leads to everything being viewed through a binary lens: win or lose. Scheffler was surprised by the idea that he was not playing as well as expected. Expectations can be an anchor, especially if they are big. But Scottie Scheffler explained that he looks at everything through his ability to control his game and his preparation. Results will come if that foundation is solid.

“I think that’s a funny question, because if you flip over my season, what did I finish last week? Like 24th or something – 24th and 12th, like 3rd and 4th, and a win. Would your question be the same if I went 3rd, 4th, won?” Scheffler said at TPC Sawgrass. “That’s my point. It’s like what you expect from me happens week after week. My expectations from me are almost the same.

“When it comes to my golf game and what I expect from myself, my expectations are all based on what I want from myself mentally on the golf course like committing to what I can do, and controlling that aspect.”

He struggled that week. The driver was bad, and his usual instrument playing was good it’s really good.

Next came the Masters and a slew of near misses that have defined the world’s best player’s strange season.

At Augusta National, Scheffler played near-flawless golf under brutal conditions in Round 1. He came off an easy set in the second round, leaving him 11 shots behind Rory McIlroy entering the weekend. After that, Scheffler played 36 holes of bogey-free golf and got one shot short of McIlroy. On the 17th hole on Sunday, Scheffler’s birdie putt followed the hole but bounced left at the last second, resulting in a tie for second place.

After the round, Scheffler lamented Augusta National’s decision to soften the set on Friday and praised McIlroy while noting that a few shots during the 72 holes made the difference. Margins are razor thin, and sometimes one swing is the difference between winning and losing.

“I’ve been competing against him for a long time, and you don’t win as many tournaments as he’s won without being strong,” Scheffler said of McIlroy. “I knew going in today I would have to do something special if I wanted to catch him with Cam [Young] and I was close but just a few shots here or there.”

Rory McIlroy beat Scottie Scheffler. But Scheffler also gave him an opening.

A similar story happened the following week at RBC Heritage.

Scheffler entered the weekend seven shots behind Matt Fitzpatrick, but made a weekend charge and tied the Englishman on the final hole to send the tournament into a playoff. Then, Fitzpatrick hit a 4-iron into the air to 13 feet and made the birdie putt to win and give Scheffler another runner-up finish.

“On Sunday, it’s a shot here or there that makes the difference,” Scheffler said as Fitzpatrick celebrated. “This was one of those weeks where Fitzy needed something to happen, he did something. He really came through, and he just played good golf.”

A few weeks later, at the Cadillac Championship, Scheffler started a ho-hum match when Cameron Young shot an opening-round 64 to beat him by seven shots. Scheffler matched him over the next 54 holes but had to settle for second place as Young went six shots clear at Doral.

“He hit a lot of quality shots this week,” Scheffler said of Young that week. “Lots of quality iron shots, quality shots, especially on the holes where it matters the most. There are a few shots here that are really tough and he got up and hit the shots. On the greens, he’s been unbelievable this week. First 27 holes, I don’t think he really missed anything. It was nuts. The guy was just hitting everything, while he was hitting really well. A recipe for running away from a golf tournament.”

Scottie Scheffler was playing it’s really good golf. If you look at his stats compared to last season, where he won seven times, Scheffler was just a tick. Last season, Scheffler ranked first in total Strokes Gained (2.743), second in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (0.748), first in approach (1.291) and 22nd in putting (0.382). This season, Scheffler has been slightly better on the green (0.506) but has seen his iron play drop from foreign to just good (0.521 Strokes Gained: Approach). Scheffler’s Strokes Gained total is down to 2.221 this season. That still leads the PGA Tour, but the immersion in the iron game is enough to get him beat when other world-class players bring their A-game.

“If you look at it statistically, I’m probably not much different than the last couple of years, just a few shots here and there,” Scheffler said Sunday after the loss to Clark. “A few things are going well for me in other tournaments. This season looks different, but like you said, I’ve been playing solid golf. Keep putting yourself in place, and things will turn around for me.”

Golf is a fickle game that is won and lost by very good margins. Tiger Woods once went two years and four months without a win. Jack Nicklaus also went 24 months without a win. Rory McIlroy went 18 months without lifting the trophy.

Scheffler’s last win came three months past.

He is still the best player in the world. That those close to him are the subject of conversation speaks to the expectation of greatness. Such is the price of talent that transcends the world. Scottie Scheffler’s golf has been a touch below the level he set last year, resulting in him continuing to finish on the other side of the golf curve. One bad round or one bad round opens up McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Young and on Sunday, Clark to play really well and beat him.

As he left TPC Craig Ranch on Sunday, Scheffler sounded like a broken record discussing a miss that might have had a different outcome if he had just been a little sharper and not run into another outstanding career.

“Sometimes you have to tip your cap and say you’re playing well, and 60 was going to be tough to beat today,” Scheffler said. “Overall, I’m proud of myself this week, but I wish I could have gotten a few more shots out of it. Overall, Wyndham played some great golf.”

Scottie Scheffler then left the hometown tournament, hoping that his next start, the Memorial, would have a different outcome.