California’s first storms of the hurricane season are expected to arrive this weekend, raising concerns about wildfire danger.
Storms could reach Central California early Sunday, bringing gusty winds to the Sierra Nevada and a 10 percent chance of lightning but producing very little rain, said Carlos Molina, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Hanford.
Some of California’s largest recorded fires were started by dry lightning strikes, including the August Complex fire, which in 2020 became the state’s first to burn more than a million acres.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue Monday and Tuesday but should be accompanied by wet rains that reduce fire danger, as well as about 10 inches of rain, Molina said. The moisture will be limited to the Sierra and Owens Valley sides of the entire range and is not expected to reach the San Joaquin Valley, which is likely to see triple-digit heat, he said.
Monsoon storms can be unpredictable and cause flooding in desert areas, so people should always be aware of their surroundings, he said.
There is a 10% to 20% chance of lightning in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, especially in the mountains, from Sunday through Thursday, said Spencer Fielding, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Those areas can also see rain, but forecasters won’t know for sure until it gets closer, he said. Temperatures are expected to rise, with some areas reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and conditions will be very humid due to monsoon moisture, he said.
The monsoon is a change in wind direction that usually pushes tropical moisture into California in the summer, said Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey.
Moisture is expected to arrive in the Bay Area on Sunday and will pick up Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing with it a variable, strong storm and about a 20 percent chance of lightning, Flynn said. By the time it reaches that far north, the pattern isn’t expected to bring much, if any, rain, and even if it does, most of it will evaporate before hitting the ground due to dry summer winds, Flynn said.
“That creates your risk, possibly, of lightning without rain that can put out any fire,” he added, adding that warming has dried plants and soil.
To the east, Death Valley and the Morongo Basin could see isolated storms Sunday, followed by widespread activity Monday, with thunderstorms, dry lightning and gusty winds, said Stan Czyzyk, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Las Vegas. Any rain is expected to be light, he said.
There is a possibility that heavy rains could reach the area after Monday, but the forecast is not yet known, he said.
The moisture should provide some relief from the temperatures hitting the area, although it will also increase humidity levels, meaning conditions won’t cool off much at night, he said.
