The “toll” of the Strait of Hormuz will pose a huge economic and national risk, experts say

Reports that Iran is planning to charge ships a fee to intercept The Strait of Hormuz they raise concerns about the potential economic impact on oil and gasoline prices.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has “imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ships to submit full documentation, obtain authorization codes and accept IRGC escorted passage through a single controlled corridor,” Lloyd’s List Intelligence analysts said in a recent report. At least two ships paid in Chinese yuan, according to a maritime research provider.

At the moment, Iran has not officially started charging the strait, which has never existed before. But Tehran indicated this week that, under a long-term peace deal to reopen the strait, it would charge ships a toll to ensure safe passage, Reuters reported.

In a tweet on Truth Social on Thursday, President Trump warned Iran against blocking the vital canal, which links the Persian Gulf to many trade routes. “There are reports that Iran is imposing tariffs on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz – They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” he wrote.

Analysts with investment adviser Capital Economics said in a report that charging Iranian traffic would give the country “de facto control over an important energy trade artery and introduce a new source of geopolitical risk to the country’s economy.”

The Strait of Hormuz, which normally holds about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, remains closed, with ships unable to venture through the narrow waterway. While more than 100 ships a day usually cross the strait, in March an average of only six ships made the trip, and this month the crossing reached about 10 a day, according to Marine Traffic data.

Global oil prices, which were trading between $65 and $73 per barrel just before the war began in Feb. 28, up just over $95 on Friday.

Could Iran’s control of the strait affect oil prices?

The Financial Times reported this week that Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for Iran’s energy exporters’ union, said the country would consider imposing a tax equivalent to $1 a barrel. That could be as much as $2 million for every oil tanker that goes through the crisis, according to shipping industry experts and economists.

However, those additional costs alone will not have a significant impact on global oil prices, according to Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing, who noted that the minimum cost of oil production in most Persian Gulf states is around $20 per barrel.

“It won’t add much to the cost of production,” he told CBS News. “They will still be extracting huge profits from the barrel of oil.”

In contrast, Shearing expects oil prices to remain high for months if Tehran holds firm on the road – whether the toll is imposed or not.

“There’s an open question about whether that will be used as an economic weapon in the future,” Shearing said, pointing to the risk that Iran could use the threat of increased tariffs as leverage on other countries.

“There will be a permanent risk premium in the markets in terms of oil prices. I think we are in a world where oil prices will go up significantly because of this,” he added.

The Strait of Hormuz toll will also encourage ship insurers to raise their rates, further increasing energy costs, Artem Abramov, senior partner and head of oil and gas at Rystad Energy, told CBS News.

“It will take a long time for ship owners and insurance companies to get comfortable with this unusual approach, and freight rates and insurance premiums will remain high,” he told CBS News. “They add to the cost of oil, all these costs are passed on to consumers.”

The most important factor affecting energy costs is the extent of damage to oil and natural gas facilities across the Gulf, said Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, a policy research firm.

“The biggest problem with oil prices is the damage to the infrastructure rather than the revenue,” he told CBS News. “That’s what changed the energy markets.”

—CBS News’ Julia Ingram contributed to this report