The possible manipulation of the World Cup in Polymarket has been flagged by a group of sports consultants

An independent group that monitors possible manipulation of sports competitions has announced the results of a yet-to-be-released report examining irregularities related to betting and gambling at FIFA World Cup matches.

An organization called the Group of Copenhagen monitored all 104 games and decided that 15 games rose to the level of requiring enhanced monitoring. The group also evaluated 12 major conflicts from a “integrity risk perspective.”

Although the Copenhagen Group has not released its full detailed report, i New York Times reported that several of these flagged events involved the online prediction market Polymarket.

The report reveals how $4.8 million was placed on Polymarket to prevent Spain from beating Cape Verde in their group stage match, the first match either team played in this year’s tournament. The result of this game, equal to the goal, was considered as one of the games that shocked the entire World Cup. Spain was the tournament favorite and went on to win the championship. Cape Verde was playing its first ever World Cup match.

However, more notable than the surprise match result was the market that opened at Polymarket based on the red card given to US Men’s National Team striker Folarin Balogun.

According to the report, the Polymarket was opened on July 2, which asked: “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” The same day Balogun was shown a red card in the US match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The red card meant that Balogun would not be able to play in the match against Belgium.

However, on July 5, before the US vs. Belgium match, FIFA announced that Balogun will be allowed to play and that his ban will be lifted. President Donald Trump will praise FIFA’s decision shortly after, saying he had a phone call with FIFA president Gianni Infantino. Reporting later confirmed that American officials went into action immediately following the issuance of the red card for conversion.

Did Trump officials who had knowledge of this information participate in insider trading to profit from Polymarket? It’s a legitimate question to ask, especially given the recent news that Trump’s teleprompter manager profit from their position by selling in Kalshi.

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity in recent years. Kalshi, a prediction market partnered with the official sponsor of the World Cup prediction market, ADI Predictstreet, he said a record $1.2 billion in trade was put in place to predict the winner of the World Cup. The company said it also gained 3 million new users from the World Cup.

According to experts interviewed by New York Timessomething that doesn’t go well doesn’t mean that there has been fraud. While the Copenhagen Group’s investigation was coordinated with FIFA’s own Integrity Task Force, FIFA released its own results saying “no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in relation to any match” had been identified.