Rangers vs Red Sox preview: Why Sonny Gray gives Boston rare edge in losing season at home

I’ve taken a lot of heavy lifting this year with the diamond. I’m not complaining about anything, it’s been a decent season, but what upset me was when I took the first five innings down and then lost and played all the money. I was right on one of those ends as I took the under in the first five Giants vs. Nationals, and scored two runs in five innings, but a combined 22 runs in the game. Let’s try to stay on the good side of luck as the Rangers take on the Red Sox.

The Texas Rangers currently sit at .500 and are just one game away from the division title. I’ve said it before, and I’ll probably say it all season – nobody seems to want to win or run away from the American League West division. Many of us thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Seattle Mariners would enter the postseason without much opposition. That could still happen but the top four teams are all within 5 games of each other, and the Angels are only 8.5.

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This could be a good time for Texas to use winnable games. They have a good average on the road, but have a sub .500 record. Leading them off today is Jack Leiter, who has a 3-5 record, 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. None of those numbers, obviously, are very impressive. I don’t think they’re bad, either, but maybe he’s looking for a better chance to beat him than teammates like Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovadli. He’s been a little worse on the road this season than at home, and his form hasn’t been great, allowing four or more earned runs in three of his four starts. Red Sox hitters are hitting just .200 in 20 at-bats.

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The Red Sox have been a disaster this season, but rumors say they still believe they can turn the team around this year. They are just 27-39, and have been terrible at home with a 10-21 record. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s wrong with Boston. The stats tell one side of the story, but are all players struggling because the team fired Alex Cora, or is there something else? Maybe just a down year? The truth remains that it doesn’t matter – they weren’t good.

Boston Red Sox first baseman Wilson Contreras looks on after hitting the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn., on April 14, 2026. (Photos by Jesse Johnson/Imagn)

If they decide to release players instead of adding to their squad, expect today’s starter, Sonny Gray, to be at the top of the list. Gray has value, has been traded multiple times and continues to be a viable option for playoff teams. He was great for the Red Sox, going 7-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He was also very good at home this season, posting a 2.52 ERA. He has converted a career-high three runs in his past six outings, and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those starts. Rangers hitters are hitting just .195 against him in 82 at-bats.

This should be a winnable game for the Red Sox. He has a better hole on the mound, and he gets to play in what should be home field advantage. It doesn’t seem like the Red Sox are affected as much when they start as they are when someone else does. They have won 10 games at home, and four of them have been won in Gray’s start.

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Texas Rangers manager Skip Schumaker looks at his roster card during the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium on Feb. 20, 2026. (Photos by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn)

I like Leiter, but he has him up against a powerful opponent. I think Boston wins this game, but I would be surprised if this was a high scoring game. Personally, I’ll take Boston at -136 for the game, but I’d consider taking under 8.5 if you’re into it. I’ll stick to my one playthrough.