Patriotism is good, but making money is better: ‘Fade the public’ on Team USA vs Australia at 2026 World Cup

The 2026 FIFA World Cup heats up on Friday, June 19, as the United States faces Australia in a crucial Group D matchup. Kickoff is set for 3 pm ET at Lumen Stadium in Seattle, Washington, where the home crowd awaits.

Both countries come into this game riding high after winning many goals in their opening matches of the World Cup. However, BetMGM has the Americans as -165 favourites, the Socceroos as +400 underdogs and a +320 draw with a goal value of 2.5.

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Can Team USA maintain their momentum, or will the Aussies pull off another shocker? Here are my top picks for the United States vs. Australia, followed by the best bet.

Christian Pulisic’s injury looms large for Team USA

American attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic left after the first half of the USA’s 4-1 win over Paraguay in their 2026 World Cup opener with a calf injury.

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According to SICScore.com, Pulisic has a history of calf problems, and did not practice with the team this week. Calf problems can lead to more serious injuries, such as a torn Achilles tendon.

Meanwhile, this is the first World Cup with 48 teams, and the knockout round has 32 teams instead of 16.

United States midfielder Christian Pulisic approaches the box during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Europa Press Sports/Europa Press via Getty Images)

Among the many teams making the playoffs this year and Pulisic’s injury history, there is a 70/30 chance USA team manager Mauricio Pochettino rests Pulisic on Friday.

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That is important.

In fact, my friends, who bet more on football than I do, say that there has been a “handover” in the team game this year because there are more spots available.

Three of America’s goals against Paraguay came in the first half while Pulisic was on the field. I expect the USA’s offense will be weak against Australia if Pulisic is not playing.

The numbers below weren’t as good as the scoreboard

In addition, the United States had only 1.42 expected goals against Paraguay, and America scored one goal.

Also, the Aussies shut out Türkiye 2-0 in their World Cup opener. However, they had only 1.18 goals against and only had the ball 28% of the game.

Australia’s Connor Metcalfe celebrates with his teammates after scoring their second goal against Turkey at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. (Photos by Anne-Marie Sorvin-Imagn)

With Australia being a +425 underdog against Türkiye, the Socceroos essentially stole three points from the group stage.

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They were also the worst betting odds to win Group D, so with that in mind, the Socceroos will be happy to get a point by drawing against the United States on Friday.

This is a classic fade-the-latest effect area

Finally, this is an old-school “fading late effect” angle, with Team USA looking amazing in their first game.

According to John Ewing’s BetMGM, 80% of the money is on Over 2.5 goals in that sportsbook from Wednesday evening.

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However, the Under is more expensive at market-making operations, such as Circa Sports in Las Vegas and offshore oddsmaker Pinnacle Sportsbook.

Look, I want America to win as much as the next guy.

But, more importantly, I’m trying to make money.

Again UNDER 2.5 goals (-115) BetMGM has a sharp look at the game.

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