Iowa Democrats want to flip a US Senate seat
FOX Business reporter Grady Trimble reports on state Rep. Josh Turek and Sen. Zach Wahls of the district who are competing for the opportunity to challenge the GOP candidate for the US Senate in the important race of ‘Special report.’
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The race to replace retiring Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is shaping up to be one of the closest Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, the first female attorney to represent the Hawkeye State, won by 6.5 points in 2020, while President Donald Trump carried it by 8 points that year and 13 in 2024.
A new national Fox News poll finds that Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% approve versus 55% disfavor). That’s 19 points compared to his +6 rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Iowa Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election poll.
The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin almost 20 years ago (2008). As it stands, Democrat Josh Turek has a 4-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson: 50% vs. 46%. It is the edge within the margin of error of the pole.
Among voters who say they are highly motivated to vote, Turek holds a 15-point lead, with greater enthusiasm among Democrats (67% highly motivated) than Republicans (53%).
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Hinson’s net favorability is more positive than Trump’s, however negative by 7 points (42% approve, 49% unfavorable) while Turek is more popular with a positive rating of 18 points (51%-33%). Sixteen percent have no opinion about Turek and 9% say the same about Hinson.
Heads up, Turek enjoys the support of women with college degrees (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under 30 (55%).
Hinson’s support comes from White evangelical Christians (67%), men age 45 and older (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). His support is strongest among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 points more likely to support him than non-MAGA GOPers (95% vs. 72%).
Overall, by 8 points, more Democrats support Turek (96%) than Republicans support Hinson (88%).
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By a 10-point margin, more Turek supporters (82%) than Hinson supporters (72%) say they are sure to support their candidate in November. About 3 in 10 Hinson supporters said they might change their minds.
More Hinson fans said their vote was for him than against his opponent compared to Turek fans (77% votes for Hinson vs. 60% for Turek).
Trump endorsed Hinson in September of last year and voters are split on her relationship with the president: 50% say they are very or very concerned that she is too close to Trump, while 48% say they are not or not at all concerned.
Fewer voters worried Turek’s positions on the issues are more liberal: 37% worried vs. 59% don’t care.
“Iowa has turned red over the last decade, but this data suggests a reversal,” said Republican Pollster Daron Shaw, who conducted the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “A trifecta of problems is helping the Democrats: Iowans have been hit hard by rising prices, they’re notoriously skeptical about foreign trade, and the agricultural community is unhappy about taxes.”
In the 2024 FNVA, 31% of Iowans said they are financially disadvantaged. That number is now 42% – almost 4 times more than those who say they are going forward (11%). Almost half say they are very conservative (46%).
Four in 10 Iowans say the most important issue in their Senate vote will be inflation (39%). Health care (14%), immigration/border security (13%), and political division (13%) trailed behind, and fewer said abortion (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), Iran (4%), and crime (2%).
Turek has an edge among voters who say their most important issues are inflation (+15 points), health care (+53), and political divisions (+20). Hinson has a massive 88-point lead on immigration.
Like Ernst, Iowa Republican Gov Kim Reynolds chose not to seek a third term.
A new poll finds Democratic nominee Rob Sand with a 9-point lead over Republican challenger Zach Lahn in the race to replace Reynolds.
Sand enjoys some mixed support, with 11% of Hinson’s supporters favoring him for governor compared to 7% of Turek’s supporters for Lahn.
More Sand supporters say they are sure of their choice than Lahn supporters (81% to 74%).
Sand enjoys a personal rating of +21: 54% favorable, 33% unfavorable. Lahn’s rating is 3 points worse, and 20% cannot place him (38% approve, 41% disapprove, 20% no opinion).
CLICK HERE CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE
Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint supervision of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 Iowa registered voters selected at random from the statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with interviewers live via landline (104) and cell phone (662) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (237). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. The sampling error of results between subgroups is high. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can affect the results. Sources for developing weight targets include the latest American Public Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Estimates are often used for age, race, education, and geographic variables to ensure that the demographics of the respondents are representative of the total number of registered voters. Results between subgroups are only shown if the sample size is at least N=100.
