Iran’s missiles threaten US forces, they do not have the capability to hit the country

President Donald Trump has warned that Iran is working to build missiles that “could reach the United States of America very soon,” raising concerns about a weapons program that is already putting US forces in the Middle East in the middle of nowhere.

Iran currently does not have a missile capable of hitting the US, officials said. But its existing missiles can target large US military bases in the Gulf, and US officials say the issue has emerged as a key issue in ongoing nuclear talks.

Here’s what Iran can do now – and how close it is to reaching the US

What Iran can do right now

Iran is widely considered by Western defense analysts to have the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists mainly of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers – about 1,200 miles.

That scope puts the vast network of US military infrastructure across the Gulf within reach.

Among the contents of that envelope:

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• Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the main headquarters of the US Central Command.
• Naval Support Mission in Bahrain, home of the US 5th Fleet.
• Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a major Army logistics center and command hub.
• Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, used by US Air Force units.
• Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
• Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates.
• Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts US aircraft.

The US military has pulled back on some regional positions in recent months, including the transfer of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq back to Iraqi control in early 2026. But the Gulf’s largest deployment remains within the envelope of Iran’s current missile inventory.

Israel’s air defense intercepted Iranian missiles in the skies over Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025. (MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Several US officials told Fox News that the staff at the Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain had been reduced to “critical” levels amid the tensions. A separate US official disputed the placement of the actors, saying no evacuation order had been issued for the workers or their dependents.

At the same time, the US has added significant naval and air assets to the region and surrounding areas in recent days.

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is operating in the Arabian Sea alongside several destroyers, while additional destroyers are stationed in the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is also headed to the region. US Air Force fighter jets – including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and A-10s – are based across Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, supported by aerial refueling tankers, early warning planes and surveillance platforms, according to a recent Fox News military briefing.

Iran has shown its willingness to use ballistic missiles against US targets before.

In January 2020, following the US strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched more than a dozen missiles at US positions in Iraq. Dozens of American service members were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.

That episode underscored the vulnerability of forward-deployed forces within reach of Iran’s missiles.

Can Iran reach Europe?

Most of the publicly known Iranian missile systems are tested to have a maximum range of about 2,000 kilometers.

Depending on the launch site, that could put parts of south-eastern Europe – including Greece, Bulgaria and Romania – within possible reach. The US has about 80,000 troops stationed across Europe, including in all three countries.

Iran is widely considered by Western defense analysts to have the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Reaching deep into Europe would require much longer systems than Iran has publicly indicated it is operating.

Can Iran hit the US?

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Iran currently does not operate an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the US.

To reach the US East Coast, the missile would need a range of 10,000 kilometers – beyond Iran’s known operational capability.

However, US intelligence agencies have warned that Iran’s launch vehicle program could provide the basis for future long-range missile technology.

In the latest threat assessment, the Defense Intelligence Agency said Iran “has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a military-capable ICBM by 2035 if Tehran decides to pursue force.”

That assessment puts any potential Iranian intercontinental missile capabilities back by about a decade — and depends on Tehran’s political decision.

US officials and defense analysts point in particular to Iran’s recent space launches, including rockets like the Zuljanah, which use solid fuel. Solid-fuel engines can be maintained and launched much faster than liquid-fueled rockets – an important feature in military missiles as well.

Space launch vehicles and long-range missiles rely on multi-stage rocket technology. Analysts say progress in Iran’s space program could shorten the path to an intercontinental ballistic missile if Tehran chooses to adapt the technology for military use.

However, at present, Iran has not fielded an operational ICBM, and the US remains outside the reach of its current ballistic missiles.

US missile defenses – capable but limited

The US relies on advanced missile defense systems – including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), Patriot and ship-based interceptors – to protect troops and allies from ballistic missile threats across the Middle East.

These systems are technically viable, but interceptor inventories are limited.

During the Iran-Israel missile exchange in June 2025, the US military reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors – about a quarter of the total the Pentagon had funded so far, according to defense analysts.

The economics also highlight the disparity: open source estimates suggest that Iranian short-range ballistic missiles can cost in the low hundreds of thousands of dollars each, while advanced US interceptors such as THAAD run about twelve million dollars or more per missile.

Accurate inventory levels are classified. But experts who track Pentagon procurement data warn that replenishing the advanced arsenal could take years, meaning a long-term, high-powered missile exchange could result in a stockpile even if US defenses remain effective.

The Missile Program includes interviews

The ballistic missile issue has also emerged as a key fault line in ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s refusal to negotiate limits on its missile program is “a major problem,” indicating that the administration views the arsenal as a long-term regional security staple.

While the current talks are focused on Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment activities, US officials say delivery systems – including ballistic missiles – cannot be separated from concerns about a possible nuclear weapon.

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Iranian officials, however, have insisted that its missile program is self-defensive and is not under discussion as part of the nuclear talks.

As diplomacy continues, the strategic truth remains clear: Iran cannot yet hit the US with a ballistic missile. But US forces across the Middle East remain within Tehran’s existing arsenal — and future capabilities remain an intelligence problem.

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