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Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore with the Rangers approved and over 7.5

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We are in a difficult time for sports. We don’t have a ton of big games going on right now. The NBA took a break from Summer League (which set viewership records, by the way). NFL mini-camps haven’t officially started yet. The NHL doesn’t have free agency going, but most of the big names have been signed. That leaves us with just baseball, which is fine by me – I like to bet on it. Fortunately, we have some great games today as well, like the one between the Mariners and the Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners are really frustrated because on paper this looks like a team that should escape not only their division, but among the best players in the American League. Not so, unfortunately. The Mariners are 51-52 this season and have been very poor on the road with a 21-29 record. I keep waiting for this group to open it, but it’s only average. Their evil is always struggling. The game staff is still dominant, but they are not getting the support they need.

Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez, left, reacts with third baseman Manny Acta after hitting a two-run home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Monday, July 4, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

Today the Mariners are getting arguably the best pitcher in their rotation this season, Bryce Miller, that they can throw. Miller is 4-4 on the year with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Seattle’s problem is that he didn’t start the year until May. His ERA for the month has also increased every month from 1.71 in May to 2.19 in June, and is now 3.06 in July. To be clear, anyone can take those numbers, but it’s something to be careful about. He’s been worse on the road than at home, too. He has allowed just 16 runs this year, but 13 of them have come on the road.

The Texas Rangers are actually leading the American League West right now. It’s not a huge surprise after they reinvested in their rotation this offseason. The team lacks top hitting, but still has some powerful bats in the lineup. Their batting average is one of the best in the league at .247, but they don’t score a ton of runs at just .427 this season. And that pitching staff they’ve tried to improve is pitching to a 4.32 ERA.

Texas Rangers pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium

Texas Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY, on May 7, 2026. (Brad Penner/Imagn Photos)

Tonight, the biggest addition they made in the offseason, MacKenzie Gore, sounded the rubber. Gore was perfect for the Rangers with a 6-8 record, 4.80 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. I think his WHIP is something that can indicate that he can lower his ERA. He was even better at home, with a 3.44 ERA. July has been a tough month for him, as he has allowed 18 earned runs, including three of his four starts with at least five runs allowed. He has faced Seattle twice this season at home; he went five innings, struck out nine batters, and allowed one hit in a scoreless appearance.

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I don’t like the Mariners in this situation. I know they have a better hitter, but this is a little Jekyll and Hyde and Miller situation. On the road, he is not as good as at home. Gore wasn’t elite, but he was much better, and more reliable at home than on the road. Seattle also absolutely struggled on the road.

Ezequiel Duran home run

Texas Rangers’ Ezequiel Duran runs to home plate to score on an error by Cleveland left fielder Cooper Ingle in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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For those reasons, I’m taking the Rangers tonight. Gore is a good pitcher, and I think he can get a win to open this series. Texas is 4-2 against the Mariners this season and has already swept them once at home this season. I think it’s a bad situation and a stain on the Mariners. I also think the value goes above 7.5 tonight.

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For more information on sports betting and games, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024



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