Rahm Emanuel is expected to say Israel needs “fundamental reforms and a new direction” at the Tel Aviv speech.

Rahm Emanuel, a Democratic presidential hopeful and longtime defender of Israel, will criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv this week and send a message that the country’s relationship with the United States is “at a crossroads.”

“It will not stop or survive as it was,” Emanuel said at Tel Aviv University on Wednesday, according to comments obtained by the Associated Press. “To maintain the strength of our relationship, we need fundamental changes and a new approach.”

In an interview with the AP before his speech, Emanuel said that Israel’s military continuation of the attack on Hamas on October 7, 2023, “has been reckless and careless in the management of Palestinian life – not just a military campaign but using food and medicine as a tool for your military goals.”

Asked if Israel has committed genocide, a charge that some human rights organizations have denied and that the Israeli and American governments have denied, Emanuel said that this question should not be looked at alone without examining the conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan.

“I’m ready to have that conversation,” he said, “but I don’t think it should be politicized, and the power of what genocide means should be diminished.”

Taken together, the interview and the upcoming speech from the hard-line Democrats are another indication that the party has moved away from supporting Israel’s history nearly three years after the war in Gaza began.

About 58% of Democrats say the US is “very supportive” of Israel, according to a new study by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, up from 45% in January 2024. About half of Democrats believe that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war with Hamas.

Emanuel’s proposals would include sanctions on Israelis who attack Palestinian civilians and property, as well as companies and banks that support settlements that are considered illegal by most of the international community. He also wants to end US funding for Israel’s defense budget, arguing that the country “should be able to buy American weapons under the same financial conditions, the same restrictions, and the same requirements as all our other loyal partners who abide by our laws.”

In addition, Emanuel will blame Netanyahu for driving Israel to a “dead end,” reinforced by the bad decisions of American leaders.

“For a long time, American policy towards Israel worked under the assumption that the best thing Washington could do for Jerusalem was to stand up blindly and silently behind your government, without conditions, without demands, and without consequences when we disagree,” he will say. “That was our mistake. Unconditional support produced a prime minister who thought his tactics would cost nothing if he ignored America’s concerns.”

It is rare for an American with presidential ambitions to visit a foreign country, let alone one as high-profile as Israel, to deliver such a painful rebuke of its political leadership. Moderates like Emanuel have been more reluctant than a growing base of Democrats to question long-term US support for Israel in recent years.

President Trump, once a close friend of Netanyahu, recently expressed his displeasure with him during the war with Iran, as the US and Israel policies diverged. Last month, Mr. Trump told reporters that Netanyahu had a “lack of judgment” after Israel attacked Iranian-backed militants in Beirut.

“Why did Bibi have to attack?” Mr. Trump said to Axios. “I even got angry. I let him know.”

Those words came from behind Vice President JD Vance said Netanyahu “he had found the wrong things.”

How will Netanyahu react?

Emanuel’s words may provoke a fiery response from Netanyahu, who once called Emanuel, who had aspirations to become the first Jewish speaker of the House, a “self-hating Jew.” Netanyahu is facing his own re-election battle in October, and the veteran leader may try to use the clash with Emanuel to political advantage by appearing tough in the face of international criticism.

Emanuel, who arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday before Wednesday’s speech, told the AP that he is deliberately avoiding contact with Israel’s elected officials during his visit to avoid interfering in the country’s upcoming elections. Instead, his agenda includes visiting a hospital that serves Israelis and Palestinians and meeting the family of the October 7 hostage.

For those who may run for the presidential election of the Democratic Alliance who are examining how to deal with the fallout of Israel’s war in Gaza and Netanyahu’s leaning towards the Republican Party, led by Mr. Trump, this speech represents a definite strategy. The war has disrupted political cohesion in both major US political parties, with young voters indifferent to Israel’s approach to the conflict pressuring US leaders to take stronger action. The issue has dominated the Democratic congressional primaries this year and could continue to be a dividing line in the party’s 2028 presidential race.

Criticizing Netanyahu for doing little to advance efforts to end the war, Emanuel will note that “support for Israel is declining around the world.”

“You lost Europe,” he will say. “Your scientists face exclusion from international research networks. Your artists and academics are excluded from exhibitions and conferences.”

Support for Israel has dwindled

Although Netanyahu has built a strong relationship with Mr. Trump and the Republican Party, support for Israel among Democrats has declined in recent years. But in portraying Israel as increasingly isolated, Emanuel’s comments echoed recent remarks from Vance, a sign of how criticism of the country is catching on on both sides. Speaking recently in a briefing room at the White House as the US works to close a deal to end the war with Iran, Vance said Mr. Trump is “the only head of state in the world who sympathizes with the nation of Israel at this time.”

For all his strong words, Emanuel, who is Jewish and whose father was born in Jerusalem, will offer notes of compassion and understanding. He acknowledged the attack on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led forces attacked Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. He cited disappointment in previous rounds of peace talks with Palestinian leaders.

“But even if we acknowledge that history, the way forward cannot be held in the past defined only by blame,” he will say.

He will call the two-state solution “discarded” and instead push for a “23-state solution” that includes Israel, the Palestinians and the other 21 members of the Arab League in a peace accord.

“The 21 Arab nations that have exploited Palestinian rights as a slogan for decades now need to roll up their sleeves and stand up for authorities that can accept the historical connection of the Jews to this world,” he will say.

While no prominent Democrat has officially entered the 2028 race, that could change soon after the November midterms with a potentially crowded field. Few have been as open about their intentions as Emanuel, a former White House chief of staff, congressman, Chicago mayor and US ambassador who has spent much of the past three decades holding one public office or another. Out of that post now, he’s gained attention by rolling out a series of policy proposals, cycling through New Hampshire’s voting state, appearing on podcasts and increasing his social media presence.