If the Iran nuclear talks collapse, analysts say the US will strike in phases

If talks with Iran collapse, the US is likely to move quickly to weaken Tehran’s military capabilities – campaign analysts say it will start with missile systems, naval assets and command networks before moving on to controversial targets.

Negotiators are still working on what officials describe as a preliminary draft agreement — a one-page starting point for broader talks focused on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. But deep mistrust on both sides has left the process fragile, raising the stakes if negotiations fail.

“We are not starting from zero,” said Army Lt. Col. Seth Krummrich, former Joint Staff editor and global risk analyst, told Fox News Digital. “We both start at 1,000 because neither team trusts each other at all. This will be a very difficult process going forward.”

That tension was on display on Thursday, when a senior US official confirmed that US forces had raided the Iranian port of Qeshm and Bandar Abbas – key areas near the Strait of Hormuz – while insisting that the operation did not mean a resumption of hostilities or the end of a ceasefire.

The strike at one of Iran’s oil ports came two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and a cruise missile at the UAE’s Fujairah Port, sparking anger from Gulf allies. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Dan Caine, said earlier this week that the attack did not reach the level of ending the ceasefire, and described it as a low-level strike.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that if the talks fail, the US could resume bombing Iran – even signing before the latest ceasefire was implemented that Washington could target the country’s energy infrastructure and important economic assets. But any escalation is likely to happen in stages, starting with efforts to disperse Iran’s energy production capabilities across the region before moving on to disputed territories.

If talks break down, any renewed conflict could become an “escalating control contest,” in which Iran seeks to impose costs without provoking retaliation that threatens the regime while the U.S. works to strip Tehran of its remaining power, according to retired Army Lt. Gen. David Deptula.

“The capabilities that will be focused on are those that Iran uses to generate coercive power: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, naval strike equipment, command and control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy support stations, and nuclear-related facilities,” he said, referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“The military objective will be less about punishment and more about denying Iran the tools it uses to escalate,” he said.

“President Trump has all the cards, and he’s smartly keeping all the options on the table to make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told Fox News Digital. The Pentagon was not immediately available for comment.

Another focus may be Iran’s fleet of fast-attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz — a central component of Tehran’s ability to threaten global shipping in one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

RP Newman, a military and terrorism analyst and Marine Corp veteran, said leaving most of those ships intact during previous strikes was a mistake.

IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN DISRUPT THE HORMUZ CONCLUSION

“We blew six,” he said. “They have about 400 left.”

The small, fast-moving boats are a key part of Iran’s asymmetric naval strategy, capable of harassing commercial tankers and the US Navy – and could quickly become the first target of any renewed campaign.

Much of Iran’s military structure also remains intact.

INSIDE THE IRANIAN MILITARY: ACTIVITIES, MILITIAS AND AN ARMY BUILT FOR SURVIVAL

Newman said “we’ve only killed less than 1 percent of the IRGC,” leaving a large portion of the force still able to carry out operations. He estimated the group at “numbers between 150 and 190,000.”

But targeting the IRGC is more complicated than eliminating the top leadership.

“They’re not just a group of senior leaders that you can kill,” Krummrich said. “Over 47 years it’s been broken down at every level.”

An excavator removes debris from the site of a strike that destroyed part of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, on April 7, 2026, according to a security official at the scene. (Francisco Seco/AP)

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior official at the policy center of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that Washington may continue to intensify economic pressure before increasing military action, saying that the US should “squeeze at least another three to six weeks” before considering aggressive escalation.

“You could put Kharg Island back in smithereens,” Krummrich said, referring to Iran’s main oil export point in the Persian Gulf. “But what the organizer is saying is, no – what we can do is block the sea. It will have the same effect.”

Iran has continued to channel crude through clandestine shipping networks and ship-to-ship transfers, with tanker trackers reporting millions of barrels still reaching markets in recent weeks.

A CIA analysis found that Iran could sustain those pressures for another three to four months before facing serious economic hardship, according to a report by The Washington Post.

The question is how far the US campaign can expand if initial pressure fails to compel consent.

Trump signaled a determination to move forward, warning before the ceasefire that the US could “totally shut down” Iran’s power plants, oil infrastructure and key export sites such as Kharg Island if a deal was not reached.

Strikes on the Iranian leadership, the IRGC, and Iranian shipping and oil infrastructure have disrupted markets. (Sasan Images / Middle East / AFP via Getty Images)

“You don’t do that in the first place,” Montgomery said, describing strikes on dual-use infrastructure as a conditional measure dependent on Iran’s response.

Identifying dual-use infrastructure presents significant legal and operational challenges.

“I’ve got 500 people standing where I’m going. You can’t beat that,” Newman said.

Such decisions carry political and legal risks, especially given the possibility of international scrutiny.

Broad infrastructure strikes could also create long-term instability if they push Iran into internal collapse.

“In the short term, it might help. But in the long term, we’re all going to have to deal with it,” Krummrich said. “Once you pull that iron, you’re actually bringing Iran closer to the edge of the abyss.”

The collapse of the country’s authorities could create a state of regional failure across the Strait of Hormuz, with armed groups, drones and missiles operating unchecked in one of the world’s most important waterways.

Even some of the most discussed military options – such as seizing Iran’s highly enriched uranium – would be very difficult to implement.

“That’s a lot harder than it sounds,” Montgomery said.

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Such work can take months, and requires engineers, technicians and heavy drilling equipment, in addition to the thousands of workers in the US who provide continuous ventilation.

“When you start putting that together, that becomes a huge resource risk and a big risk — not even a very big risk,” Krummrich said.