Experts warn US-Israeli strikes on Iran raise the risk of nuclear proliferation
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The killing of Iranian nuclear scientists in US-Israeli military strikes has raised fears that, if the regime loosens, weaker controls on uranium enrichment and the spread of nuclear technology could increase the risk of proliferation.
While Iran can replace its lost workers, experts say the lost technology will be difficult to rebuild and undisclosed locations in the country could leave dangerous materials and information vulnerable.
“Currently, the risk of nuclear terrorism or nuclear materials moving onto the black market remains low,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of nonprohibition policy at the Arms Control Association.
“Non-state actors will face challenges in obtaining enriched uranium, and are unlikely to have the infrastructure to enrich it to weapons grade and convert it into the metal needed for a warhead core,” he said.
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Mourners gather near the coffins of Iranian armed generals, nuclear scientists and their family members in trucks, who were killed in Israeli strikes, during their funerals in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, June 28, 2025. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
“However, if the current Iranian government attacks or the conflict causes serious internal instability, there is an increased risk that nuclear material will be stolen or transferred to undisclosed locations.”
“There is also a risk that Iranian nuclear scientists may be willing to sell their technology to states or non-state nations seeking nuclear weapons,” Davenport said in a new report.
Several senior figures in Iran’s nuclear and defense infrastructure have been killed in the past two years, which coincide with a campaign of US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities between 2025 and 2026.
Among them is Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), who was killed in 2026 during Operation Rising Lion and Operation Epic Fury.
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President Pezeshkian said that Iran will rebuild the nuclear facilities directed by the US, and make them stronger by 2025. (Iranian Presidency / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The SPND is seen as a successor to Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear weapons program and plays a key role in new weapons research.
Others killed in 2025 include Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Akbar Motallebizadeh and Said Borji, all linked to the arms operation.
“The full impact of this campaign on Iran’s military capabilities is still unclear,” Jim Lamson, a senior researcher at the Center for Non-Deterrence Studies, told Fox News Digital.
“There will be those who will enter the positions of managers and scientists, but the impact of the knowledge and expertise of the killed officials will be difficult to replace,” said the former CIA analyst.
“Several key scientists involved in the alleged weapons targeting operation were killed in 2025 and 2026.”
“Incumbents may also fear future targeting, be it military strikes or assassinations. That may affect their motivation and willingness to participate in any nuclear weapons program.”
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A coffin during the funeral of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sedighi Saber. (Photos by Alborz Irani/SOPA/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Lamson also said many of those targets were placed in critical areas of Iran’s nuclear program, including the fuel cycle and weapons.
“These scientists had expertise in areas of the nuclear fuel cycle that are of most concern to nuclear weapons, including the production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which was Iran’s primary method of making fissile material,” he said.
“Scientists also had weapons technology – that is, in key aspects of the design and production of nuclear explosives,” Lamson said.
That said, strikes aimed at the US and Israel have also hit a network of sites linked to their operation, creating further obstacles to Iran’s program in the near term, he said.
“We have identified at least 11 weapons sites that have been attacked since 2024,” Lamson said.
“These include the SPND headquarters, a newly identified site called Min-Zadayi in northeast Tehran, SPND explosives testing facilities in Taleghan and Sanjarian, the Shahid Meisami Ministry of Defense complex in western Tehran and several research universities.”
These centers were all involved in neutronics, explosives, metallurgy and nuclear physics – all related to the development of nuclear weapons, he said.
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Satellite images show reinforcement efforts at Pickaxe Mountain as Trump says Tehran is pursuing a nuclear weapon. (Vantor/Reuters)
Despite the level of recent strikes, Iran retains a rich nuclear arsenal, with President Donald Trump saying on April 17 that the US will work with Iran to find “nuclear dust” – enriched uranium – from the sites, adding that both countries will use heavy equipment to remove it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency also estimates that Iran still possesses more than 200 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in Esfahan—enough for about five weapons if developed.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, also said it was “under the rubble” of previous strikes and that Tehran had no plans to take it back.
“It’s always possible that Iran has other sites that were unknown to Israel and the US,” Lamson said.
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“We will have to wait and see to what extent these activities translate into a lasting strategic impact on Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons.”
“It is easy to see the damage and death caused by Israeli and US strikes, and much harder to assess their actual impact on Iran’s ability and intentions to develop a nuclear weapon,” Lamson explained.
