War with Iran throws the Middle East into chaos. Missiles and drones dominate the headlines, but another victim is emerging: the global university.
In an almost unprecedented move, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said US universities in the Middle East are “legitimate targets” following US-reported attacks on two Iranian universities. Another attack since then has targeted the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, one of Iran’s most prestigious institutions.
Over the past two decades, universities from around the world (including many from the US) have planted campuses across the Gulf. Since the early 2000s, they have opened branches in places like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, driven by national strategies that aim to build a knowledge economy and sometimes supported by large state subsidies.
The promise was not only in money, but also in reaching the people of the region who yearn for higher education and the stability of the participating countries, to ensure that the long-term investment will bring benefits. These branches have done a great job in the Gulf region: They expand access to education, strengthen research capacity, connect their hosts to international academic networks and provide international imrimatur legitimacy.
The relationships fostered by these academic ties become important tools of soft power, further enhancing the region’s global influence. The branch campuses were like an educational United Nations, representing institutions from Australia, Canada and the US, as well as India, Russia and, yes, even Iran.
The branch campuses jointly form an educational mall, allowing students easy access to educational methods from more than a dozen different countries, offering undergraduate and graduate degrees in various fields, including business, engineering, medicine, foreign policy and journalism, in a stable, safe and multicultural environment.
For nearly half a century, gambling paid off.
Since 2009, the group we founded, the Cross-Border Education Research Team (C-BERT), has followed the growth of international branch offices (IBCs) in the Middle East and around the world. During that time, we have talked to hundreds of university leaders about opening branches. They often worry about financial stability, regulatory changes or changing government priorities. Those risks are real, but manageable.
Military conflict was also a significant risk. But it rarely seems to be considered as important as these other concerns. When it came up in interviews, the response was usually nervous laughter. The war was dangerous in the invisible, not in the real world created by wealth and filled with global influence.
War with Iran has increased that calculus.
As tensions over missiles rocked the region in early March, several IBCs moved classes online or suspended operations. Even if the agreement remains and the conflict is temporary, the perception of the Gulf as a stable and safe place for long-term educational investment and educational opportunity could be a permanent threat.
Our C-BERT data shows that there are more than 50 IBCs in countries directly affected by the war (and this does not include those institutions called “American University of …,” which publicly declare their affiliation with the US higher education system while having only limited ties to the country). The US alone has 11 IBCs in directly affected countries. These include three campuses in the United Arab Emirates (Hult International Business School in Dubai, New York University Abu Dhabi and Rochester Institute of Technology Dubai) and seven in Qatar (Arkansas State University, Carnegie Mellon University, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, Northwestern University, Texas A&M University, Virginia Commonwealth University and Weill Cornell Medicine–Cornell University), as well as Empiskireeh State University, and Empiskireeh University
Universities from 17 different countries have built classrooms, hired faculty from every continent and convinced students and their families that the facility will be there when they graduate. Their investments have a horizon of decades. The war is moving up long timelines overnight.
When these branches close, the loss extends beyond the outpost and can take years to rebuild. Universities have spent years cultivating relationships with government leaders, local businesses and other stakeholders across the Middle East. Faculty and staff employed internationally may find their contracts uncertain. Students, who often expect degrees from other countries without leaving the state, can be left scrambling to complete their education.
Wider implications are also possible. Data already show that student interest in studying in the Gulf has dropped by almost a third since the start of the war. Branch campuses outside the Middle East may also close as higher education reassesses the risks. The positive benefits of the soft power of international education pale in comparison to the brute power of war.
The rapid shift to online learning reflects the resilience of global higher education. Universities have the ability to adapt to critical situations. But resilience should not be confused with preparedness.
This battle raises an important question: Are universities prepared for the new geopolitical era?
For decades, universities have expanded around the world under the implicit assumption that academic cooperation can be more effective than geopolitics. That view is becoming less and less acceptable. Conflicts are spreading across regions where they are considered stable, governments are asserting greater control over education across borders and universities themselves have become instruments of national strategy.
International branch campuses are designed for a globalized world. Now they have to work in a divided world.
Universities will need to rethink how they design and manage their global operations, from emergency planning and student protection to the critical question of where and how institutions should invest abroad.
The question is no longer whether geopolitics and war will affect universities operating overseas.
They already have it.
