Welcome to our PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow him on X at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his early picks below for the Open Championship, which will begin on July 16 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
The final major of the golf season is right around the corner. The John Deere Classic provides the final event on American soil, and next week’s Genesis Scottish Open takes us across the pond ahead of next week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England.
Scottie Scheffler comes in as your defending champion, lifting the Claret Jug last summer at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, and is the tournament favorite again at around +550.
The last time we saw Royal Birkdale in the Open Championship was in 2017. An epic duel on the inward nine saw Jordan Spieth eventually edge out Matt Kuchar and claim his third major championship title. From Thursday, July 16, 2026, Birkdale kicks off what will be the 154th edition of the world’s most prestigious golf tournament. The golf course is a classic links course, located on the shores of the Irish Sea. It will play Par 70 and is approximately 7,200 yards.
I like the mix of holes. Six Par 4s fall in the 400-450 yard range. Three Par 4s are less than 400 yards long, and three are over 500 yards. Two of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, and one of the two Par 5s is over 600 yards. Bad, smart, heather grass exists off the fairways between the rolling areas we are used to when we think of links golf and this tournament. The fairways themselves are famously flat, narrow and bordered by signature sand dunes up to 50 meters high. Sandhills create breaks between holes on the golf course and a change in elevation from tee to green.
There are hundreds of sand bunkers throughout the golf course, many of which are penalty pot bunkers – another signature feature of many Open Championship courses. The green is smaller than the average target with a large hidden offset. Due to the ever-present threat of strong winds at the Open Championship, the greens will, as usual, be kept at a slower pace than we are used to seeing.
In trying to relate Royal Birkdale to other courses we are familiar with, I think of Sea Island at the RSM Classic with its flat fairways, coastline and dunes. Harbor Town with its narrow greens, coastal setting and fairways, and Colonial Country Club, with its fairways and fairways and fairways. Royal Troon makes sense as a similar venue for the Open Championship.
We see evidence of this correlation in the 2017 leaderboard. Both Spieth and Kuchar won at Harbor Town, as did Branden Grace, who finished sixth at the 2017 Open. Spieth won the Colonial, and Kuchar is as high as the runner-up. Looking at the Royal Troon links, Matthew Southgate finished 12th at Troon in 2016 and was sixth at Birkdale in 2017. Henrik Stenson won at Troon in 2016 and was 11th at Birkdale the following year. Xander Schauffele finished 20th at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2024. Alex Noren from Sweden finished 13th in 2024 and was sixth at Birkdale in 2017, Links golf is very different from what we are used to in America and every Open Championship is different because of the weather conditions, I believe that basic knowledge is accompanied by exploration. on our handicap and it’s enough to make a few educated guesses as to who the 2026 Golf Champion of the Year might be.
Early betting
Shane Lowry (40-1)
It’s interesting to see Lowry’s price is so low compared to what you usually see at Signature Events on the PGA Tour or other major tournaments. Oddsmakers know exactly how Lowry’s game translates to links golf – and of course, he won the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. He’s arguably the best airman in the world, and when conditions are like that at Birkdale, he’s the right man to have on your card. Lowry has twice finished third at Harbor Town and was sixth at Royal Troon in 2024. He is ranked 18th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and 24th in Driving Accuracy.
Russell Henley (50-1)
This will be Henley’s second straight major, and I hope it goes better than the last one, where he finished 65th at Shinnecock in the US Open. Henley was 37 years old at Birkdale back in 2017. He finished fifth at Troon in 2024 and 10th at Portrush last summer. He also won in May in Colony. His game should be very good on this golf course. Henley is 48 on the tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and is 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He is number 1 in Driving Accuracy and fourth in Scrambling.
Harris English (100-1)
A major tournament sounds like it could be on the cards for both Henley and another Georgia Bulldog in English. He has had several top ten finishes at major championships and finished second to Scheffler last year at Portrush. English lives in the community and plays out at Sea Island Golf Club. He finished sixth at Colonial and was fourth earlier this season at Harbor Town. He is ranked 20th on Tour in Total Driving and eighth in SG: Putting. Sounds like you have a better than 100-1 chance.
We’ll be back here on Tuesday, July 14, to preview our tournament and our remaining matches to win the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
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