2026 US Open tiers! Contenders, players to watch, risers, and more

SOUTHAMPTON, NY — Do you, dear reader, have any idea how difficult it is this the golf course? The last four US Opens here at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club – from 1986 to 2018 – directly three players finished below the division. Phil Mickelson played hockey on the 13th green in 2018. Lee Trevino once called the 156-yard par-3 11th — with its thin green that was already driving players nuts Monday — “the shortest section of golf.”

Although the only thing more difficult than the golf course — other than fighting traffic to actually get to it — you might be trying to predict who wins the 126th US Open. But we’ll try anyway. Welcome to our biased, volatile but very reasonable section of the US Open, where we’ll weigh in on the contenders, and ultimately, pick a winner. And here we go…

Obligatory mention of two favorites

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

Do you know when Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler finished outside the top 20? The Players Championship, back in March. Later, Rory won the Masters and Scottie now has four top three tournaments. Scheffler needs a US Open victory to complete a career Grand Slam. Rory is looking for his second US Open trophy. Shinnecock sets up well for both players, who are very good hitters and rarely play themselves outside of big games. They are two of the best players in the world for a reason. Also, Scheffler’s 30th birthday? It’s Sunday.

One of our favorite guys who shot 63 the last time he played here

Tommy Fleetwood

Before Tommy Fleetwood was truly Tommy Fleetwood, he closed out the 2018 US Open at the Shinny with a brilliant final round 63, finishing one game shy of eventual winner Brooks Koepka. He finally got his first win on the PGA Tour last year and has six top 10s this season. An elite iron player who knows how to play in the air, this is the perfect setup for him. Is this the big No. 1?

Some of our favorite favorites

Matt Fitzpatrick
Wyndham Clark
Cameron Young

This group was there cooking‘, people. Fitzpatrick and Young are the first Athletes of the Year (five awards combined, including Fitzpatrick’s win with his brother in Zurich, which we’re not sure we should really count but whatever). Young has joined a legitimate threat every week – he also dominated the 60 miles of Bethpage Black during the Ryder Cup last fall – and Fitzpatrick has already won the US Open and loves these types of tests while everyone else seems to be more nervous around them. Clark, another US Open winner, got a lock on this last year and has been looking for better results ever since, but has turned things around and could be the hottest player going into this week. After his win over Byron Nelson last month, he finished third at the Memorial and was in contention at the RBC Canadian Open last week before finishing 11th.

A tricky choice that I particularly like

Tyrrell Hatton

He tied for sixth here in the last eight years. He is there wayyyy it’s better now. He tied for 4th at Oakmont last year. US Opens — especially those at Shinnecock Hills — drive players crazy (see: Mickelson, Phil). But Hatton has already gone mad.

Shinnecock Hills vegetables

Numbers 1-18

By law, someone is going to win this golf tournament, but the biggest winner until then (or even after) would be Shinnecock Hills and its devilish greens that are slower than usual due to the expected strong but still very difficult wind. Fitzpatrick, who likes these types of setups, said he was disappointed that they watered the greens on Monday. Regardless of who wins, the course, and the greens, will always be the story here.

LIV guys we are looking forward

Jon Rahm

The winner of the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, Rahm has played well this year and you can’t argue that he will prove that he should not be forgotten even though his league continues to worry.

LIV guys are not that strong

Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Smith

Bryson missed the cut in both of his big starts this year and we’re not sure Shinnecock is ready for his tough game. (The fairways are wide, but if you miss it, it’s dead.) Smith played well on the PGA, but is that too small of a sample size?

Protecting players with injury problems

Brooks Koepka

Koepka won his second straight US Open the last time the tournament was played here and will tell you he’s mentally (and probably physically) stronger than most of these idiots. [Cue Brooks stuffing the 20 amateurs in the field in Shinnecock lockers.] But Brooks withdrew before the final round of the RBC Canadian Open two days ago with a hand injury and on Tuesday said it was getting better by the day. However, will it bother him? “I don’t know what to do,” he said on Tuesday. “It just felt really weak and it felt like you were hitting your funny bone. That’s how it felt on my ring finger and my pinky finger.”

We didn’t mention the other US Open winners but we think they have a chance to win

JJ Spaun
Justin Rose
Gary Woodland

JJ Spaun is this week’s defending champion and has already won this season — again, ahempardon the shameless plug, and you have the most interesting coach in the game – and Justin Rose continues to play excellent golf well into his 40s. Woodland has been solid and his win earlier this season has been one of the better stories of the year.

Guys playing in their 100th consecutive major

Adam Scott

One-a hundred Directly. Thanks Adam. That’s incredible. Here’s a rundown of his career’s biggest upsets: 74 cuts, 25 top 45s, 20 top 10s and, of course, that 2013 Masters win.

3 guys we didn’t mention finished in the top 10 here in 2018

Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger

While we don’t think DJ is about to turn back time and find that form, we’re doing like P Reed this week. You should too.

2 trending boys?

Bud Cauley
Viktor Hovland

Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday, his first as a professional, while Hovland finished third – his best finish of the season. But is it a sign of good things to come or beyond?

Jordan Spieth category

Jordan Spieth

In my first major tournament I ever played against Jordan Spieth, back at Chambers Bay in 2016. I don’t think he will win this week but boy is time running out.

Some guys are interesting and have made it to the majors

Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas

Would it surprise you if one of these guys wins? No, it wouldn’t. Xander has played in nine US Opens and has never finished worse than 14th.

Some guys who are interesting and haven’t won any major awards

Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Ludwig Aberg
Chris Gotterup

Aberg may be the most interesting name among the interesting names outside the majors. Henley won a few weeks ago, is ranked 5th in the world and can walk into any restaurant outside of his hometown and not be recognized as Russell Henley, making Rory and Jordan and Tiger extremely jealous.

Guys, we have to mention them but they don’t belong in other categories

Shane Lowry
Rickie Fowler
Brian Harman
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Aaron Rai
Sam Burns

Flight at Lowry, anyone?

Our favorite guys playing in their first US Opens

[blank space]

Bad news, rookies — the last player to win the US Open on his first try was Francis Ouimet… in 1913. It won’t happen.

Interesting Alex

Alex Smalley
Alex Fitzpatrick

Both have played well this year and one (Smalley) has had a taste of major competition this season (and finished T3 at Charles Schwab two weeks after his close PGA call). Another Alex continued to prove he belongs on the Big Tour after becoming a full-time member a few months ago.

The oldest and youngest players

Padraig Harrington
Miles Russell

I don’t think any of these guys will win but it’s always fun to point to the oldest (Padraig Harrington, 54) and youngest (Miles Russell, 17) players on the field. The oldest Open winner was Hale Irwin at 45 and the youngest John McDermott at 19.

The Jacksons

Jackson Koivun
Jackson Suber
Jackson Van Paris
Jackson Herrington
Jackson Ormond

The Jackson 5 is a mix of pros and novices, though mostly because 3 percent of the 156-player field is named Jackson. One, however, should be highlighted for now, and that’s Koivun, who turned in a three-year winning streak at Auburn on Monday. In his nine PGA Tour starts as a rookie, he made seven cuts and finished in the top 10 three times. There is a lot going on around him and we are about to see more of him on our TVs. Jackson is really good.

And the winner is……

The last time we won the European US Open, Matt Fitzpatrick he lifted the title in Brookline in 2022. Now he’s doing it again, clearing one stage and setting up guys like Scheffler and Fleetwood to claim his second major title. Scheffler was my pick until Sunday, but after Fitzpatrick finished second in Canada, it was enough to persuade me to go with the hot hand that favors these conditions. Will it really happen? Now, we are waiting.