7 choose our favorite expert

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and frequent guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which starts Thursday in Texas.

It feels good to get a break from the “big” events that have dominated the PGA Tour schedule for the past six weeks. Moving on to a good old-fashioned birdie-fest deep in the heart of Texas for the sixth year in a row, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

I like to call the next three weeks “Legendary Swing,” as we move from Byron Nelson to Ben Hogan’s Colonial Country Club next week in Fort Worth, followed by the Memorial at Jack Nicklaus’s Dublin, Ohio. It’s a great lead up to the third major of the season, the US Open, which will be held at Shinnecock Hills in New York. Scottie Scheffler will be looking to complete the career slam at Shinnecock – but first, he’ll be looking to defend his title here at Lord Byron.

Scheffler stepped out of “Star Trek” last season, boldly going where no man has gone before, finishing at 31 under par and winning by eight shots. Reinforcements were quickly called in to investigate, and with the help of Lanny Wadkins, the golf course was altered in an attempt to make things more difficult.

In the 2026 edition, we’ll get a par 71 that measures a shade under 7,400 yards. Tom Weiskopf designed the facility in 2004 but Wadkins has since shortened the fairways, removed some of the lodge, and modified many of the greens – again, to try to adjust things to challenge the modern Tour player while keeping this golf course played by the club’s membership. In the five times Craig Ranch has hosted the tournament, the average margin of victory is 25.5 under the division. At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the winning Over/Under score proposal bet is 260.5, which means 23.5 under the division.

Even with the changes on the golf course, my approach to handicapping hasn’t changed. The formula remains the same: good off the tee, greens in control, hole putts for birdie. Although there have been some changes to this Bentgrass green, I still believe this will be an important tournament. Ideally, I’m looking at Strokes: From the Green, Strokes: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie or Better, Par 5 Hitting, Approaching Holes from 175-200 yards, and Par 4 Scores for those averaging 450-50 yards.

I believe the parallel courses are very strong this week. In these spilled arena events, we often see the same names on the leaderboard. I looked at two other Weiskopf designs we see on Tour, TPC Scottsdale and Black Desert Resort in Utah. I also watched Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open), and El Cardonal at Diamante (World Wide Technologies Championship).

I’m taking a long road this week. Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite at around +185. Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth are second favorites at around 15-1. Brooks Koepka checks in at around 25-1 and after that, nothing shorter than 40 or 50-1 – and that’s where I’ll start.

Stephan Jaeger (70-1)

Jaeger seems to fit the profile well this week. He is a great hitter and has become one of the best players in the game. He’s won in the state of Texas before (Houston Open), and has been atop the leaderboards at multiple majors with two 6th finishes at Vidanta Vallarta, 2nd and 11th in Utah, and 11th and 20th finishes here at TPC Craig Ranch. He caught my eye last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished 18th. He was third in that category for Greens in Regulation and ninth in SG: Putting – which was also a Bentgrass venue.

Matti Schmid (80-1)

Maybe it’s a German thing this week as both Schmid and Jaeger are from Deutschland – and of course, Schmid was another standout last week at Aronimink, finishing fourth. And what was the biggest part of his success? Yes, to put it. Schmid was No. 1 in that category last week in SG: Putting. He was eighth last season in the World Wide Technologies Championship and finished fifth at Black Desert in 2024.

Jordan Smith (80-1)

Of all my picks this week, Smith is the only one struggling, but I couldn’t ignore his golf numbers or his 16th-place finish earlier this season at another Weiskopf design, TPC Scottsdale. The young Englishman is spending his first full season on the PGA Tour after being a European Tour player for many years. He is currently ranked 21st on Tour for SG: Off The Tee, 34th for SG: Approach, and 62nd in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in the industry in Par 5s and 15th in Hole Proximity from 200 yards or more.

Beau Hossler (90-1)

The University of Texas Longhorn, Hossler should feel more at home this week and yes, he is a top player, ranked fourth on the SG Tour: Ranking. He finished third two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach, where he ranked third in that category in Greens in Regulation and seventh in SG: Off the Tee. Hossler is the king of the top 20 at the corresponding courses as he has taken 17th place here at Craig Ranch in the past, 10th place at Vidanta Vallarta, 15th, 20th, and 17th at El Cardonal, 11th at Utah, top 25 at Bay Scottdale, and 14th-3 PCs at TPC.

Taylor Moore (125-1)

We beat the last two winners of the Valspar Championship, Fitzpatrick earlier this season and Moore 60-1 back in 2023. He hasn’t done much since his one Tour win but he has shown some signs. He finished 17th two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach where he ranked ninth in that category in SG: Off the Tee and tied for 26th in SG: Approach, getting nearly three shots off the field. And yes, the putter is back, ranked 33rd on Tour this season in SG: Putting. He is one of the best on the Hole Proximity circuit between 175 and 225 yards. He finished ninth last year at TPC Scottsdale, never missed at Bay Hill, and finished second earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic.

Hayden Springer (200-1)

Welcome to section 200-1. I believe this is our first foray into this area in a while. Springer is a banger off the tee that you can put back into that great TPC Craig Ranch formula. He also spent his college years at both Texas Tech and TCU, so he’s no stranger to the golf course or golf in this part of the world. He spent most of his time this season on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he ranked fifth in that round in SG: Tee to Green and 11th in SG: Approach. Springer finished 20th last year at the Black Desert Championship.

Carson Young (225-1)

While we’re here in the 200-1 zip code, why don’t you stay another minute? Shake hands Mr. Carson Young, like Springer, split his time this season between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours. At KFT, Young has three top-7 finishes, including last week at the Colonial Life Charity Classic where he was ranked 17th in the SG: Approach category and No. 1 in SG: Around the Green. On the Korn Ferry Tour this season, Young is ranked No. 1 in SG: Tee to Green and SG: Around the Green. He is sixth in Putting Average. Young has played very well on these types of courses, on these types of golf courses, having finished 14th here in the past at Craig Ranch, eighth and 15th at Vidanta Vallarta, ninth, sixth, and runner-up at El Cardonal, and he was 11th at Utah in 2024.