After the enrollment of international students declined in the fall of 2025, a report from Shorelight, an international education company, sheds light on one factor that led to that decline: a spike in F-1 visa denials, especially for students from a few countries that typically provide large numbers of international enrollments.
Shorelight’s annual report on visa refusals showed that refusals will reach a decade high of 35 percent worldwide by 2025, surpassing the previous peak in 2020. That rejection was concentrated in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of all F-1 visa applications from Africans were denied, up from 43 percent in 2015 and up five percent from the previous year. A few countries, including Sierra Leone and Somalia, have reached abandonment rates above 90 percent. And India, previously the largest donor of international students to the United States, jumped from a rejection rate of 36 percent in 2023 to 61 percent in 2025.
Meanwhile, visa denial rates for South Americans have actually declined over the past four years, from a peak of 31 percent in 2022 to 22 percent in 2025—though that rate is still higher than it was a decade ago. The student visa refusal rate among European applicants has remained stable over the past 10 years, remaining at 9 percent in 2026.
The report also notes that the refusal is inconsistent with the district. For example, in Latin America, visa refusal rates vary greatly from country to country; in Venezuela, for example, rejections were up 22 percent from the previous year, but for students from Colombia, they have been decreasing for the last three years.
Shorelight, which obtains data on student visa denials from the US State Department through a public information request every year, has criticized these denial clusters, arguing that they show that each visa application is not judged on its own.
“This current judicial position undermines the principle of merit-based entry by creating clusters of local denials. If a student’s chances of entry depend more on their country of birth than academic credentials or financial support, the integrity of the US visa system is at risk,” the report said. “The data for 2025 confirms the consolidation of the ‘high rejection category’ that now covers much of the Global South.”
The study provides a new lens on the Trump administration’s crackdown on international students, which began nearly a year ago when the administration halted visa negotiations to implement a new social media review of applicants. Since then, prospective students have struggled to get visa interview appointments, especially in underserved countries, including India. Federal officials also cut off dozens of current student statistics from SEVIS, the database that tracks international students in the US, though most were later reversed.
The Trump administration has also sought policy changes that would make it more difficult for international students to study in the US, such as a proposed change that would cap to four years the amount of time a student can stay in the US without getting an extension.
More broadly, the administration led a massive and much-criticized nationwide deportation effort last year, boasting in January that it had deported more than 675,000 undocumented immigrants.
added this/sg: “The Trump Administration is raising the highest standards of national security and public safety for the visa process, making it clear that entering the United States is a right — not a right — and that the safety of the American people comes first,” a State Department spokesperson said. Within Higher Ed by email. “All visa applications are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with US law, and adjudicated based on the facts and circumstances of each case.”here/sg
Last month, the State Department released data showing the impact of their actions: The number of new student visas issued from the summer of 2024 to the summer of 2025 dropped by 35.6 percent.
New Shorelight data shows that this decline reflects not only the inability of students to obtain special visas, but also the increasing number of visa denials.
The report warns of the negative economic consequences of the decline in international students, estimating—based on State Department visa numbers—a $3 billion loss in university tuition this year. The report also calls for a number of legal and administrative changes, such as requiring “prepared training” for embassies in countries with rejection rates above 70 percent and mandating that embassy officials provide clear explanations for all denials.
“Besides the immediate financial loss, these conditions raise long-term concerns,” the report said. “A small number of international students means reduced contributions to research, innovation, and diversity on campus, as well as a reduced pipeline of internationally trained talent entering the US workforce. As competing countries continue to strengthen their strategies to attract and retain international students, the US risks not only short-term economic losses but also reduced competition in the global talent market.”
