Jack Leiter’s struggles at home give the Minnesota Twins the edge in American League play

Every year, I feel like I end up locking in certain pitchers and teams and betting more than others. It’s almost never intentional; Usually, I find a team or player that I like, we always win with them, and I ride the horse until it’s time to get off. This is how I feel about both the twins and the Rangers fighting in this one.

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I’ve said that the Chicago White Sox are the biggest surprise in all of baseball, but the Minnesota Twins might be willing to make a strong argument for it. This was a year where the Twins should have been trash and more likely to trade (like they did last year) than to move the club. I can’t say it’s because of Byron Buxton, one of the names floating around in trade rumors last year and in the offseason, but he’s having a good campaign and is just five games under .500 for the Twins.

One of the guys that you can say has made it this year is today’s starter, Joe Ryan. If the Twins decide to take Ryan to the market, he will have plenty of suitors and should bring back a big deal. Ryan posted a 4-3 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He was a little worse on the road than at home, but it wasn’t a big problem. He was good in May, posting a 1.73 ERA, but June saw him make three starts and allow eight earned runs, including four homers. Rangers hitters struggled a lot against him, hitting just .143 against him.

The Texas Rangers are still in trouble for the American League West division. Before you say, “Yeah, yeah, it’s only mid-June.” I bring this up because they are only two games away from the Mariners, and the Rangers haven’t played that well this season. I think there is a lot of potential for this team to add a bang, and it could make a big difference. If they added Buxton, for example, Rangers would be favorites to win the division given how everyone is playing.

Texas Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter delivers a pitch to the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on May 31, 2026. (Photos by Jim Cowsert/Imagn)

I’m not trying to discuss speculative trading, though. The pitching staff might be enough to get them to the Wild Card or a division title anyway. Today’s starter, Jack Leiter, isn’t the best on the list, but he’s been good. Leiter is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. At home, he was perfect, going 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA. He allowed four or more earned runs in seven of his 14 innings. Twins hitters hit .417 off Leiter in just 12 at-bats, with Buxton going 2-for-2 with a double, a homer and three RBIs.

I think it makes sense to play Buxton for 2+ bases here today. I get that it’s possible for him to do all this damage to Leiter in one game, but it’s still worth seeing if he can do it. He’s having a good season, and Leiter isn’t a guy who’s going to make you nervous too often about throwing zeros.

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Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins runs off the field after the fifth inning of the MLB All-Star Game at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on July 15, 2025. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

I also think we have to play the whole game. I think the Twins are the right side in this game. There are many times when I have supported Rangers, as I think they have the best team, but in this country, the conflict in the field is very strong. Give me Ryan’s lead twins, to five, on the money line.

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