The mystery of how Becerra outranked his rivals in the California governor’s race

Xavier Becerra’s campaign for governor of California seemed doomed two months ago. Every major opinion poll shows the longtime Democratic politician at the bottom of the pack, overshadowed by his more prominent or wealthy rivals.

Now Becerra is leading them all, according to the latest opinion polls, a surprise front-runner in a race that has drawn voters and political pundits alike.

Both his loyal supporters and well-heeled critics have struggled to explain Becerra’s rapid rise, with theories ranging from luck to a bad social media push. Others praised Becerra’s gentle spirit, describing him as a stable person — a Goldilocks candidate in a field of misfit rivals.

Becerra, in assessing his sudden rise, believes voters want information, not “glitz and sizzle.”

“People put their faith in someone who has done that kind of work and achieved results, someone who has faced real problems and been able to get us out of them,” Becerra said in an interview Friday after a union meeting in the Inland Empire. “Now it’s time to do things. I think they want someone who can do that.”

Becerra’s team also points to the fortunate timing of its seven-figure political ad campaign that began just before the burning allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct against the then-leading Democrat in the race, former Rep. Eric Swalwell. After Swalwell suspended his campaign on April 12, Becerra’s rise began.

Becerra has the support of 25% of likely California voters, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 21% and environmental activist Tom Steyer, his fellow Democrat, at 19%., according to a new survey by the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Two months ago, before Swalwell dropped out of the race, Becerra’s support was registered at just 5%.

Regardless of the results of Tuesday’s primary election, Becerra’s outburst against other Democrats in the final race of his campaign will be the defining moment of the 2026 governor’s race.

“It’s almost too good to be true,” said Carrie Webster, a Becerra fan and Long Beach hairstylist who interviews political candidates on social media under the name “Crowd Source Carrie.”

“He’s shot through the roof, but it feels like it’s all natural,” said Webster, 49, who said he is not paid for his political work.

A resident of Sacramento, Becerra, 68, served one term in the state Legislature, more than two decades as a Los Angeles congressman and California attorney general, and most recently served as secretary of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration.

His only previous statewide race was his 2018 bid for attorney general. In that competition, which he won very quickly, he had a great opportunity to enter the position after he was appointed by Governor Jerry Brown to fill the vacancy created by Atty. The election of Gen. Kamala Harris for the US Senate.

Running for governor proved to be very difficult. His top Democratic rivals include not only Steyer, a free-spending billionaire, but also former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, current San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.

In early March, the chairman of the California Democratic Party, Rusty Hicks, urged candidates to drop out of the race. He feared that the crowded field would split voters by party and lead to a Republican nomination as California’s next governor.

Under the state’s primary system of the top two, only the first and second place finishers advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. Although Hicks did not mention Becerra by name, he was certainly among the struggling students at the time.

So far, Becerra’s hottest moment was in late March, when he launched a public pressure campaign to boycott a USC-hosted presidential debate after he and other candidates of color were dropped from the list. University officials backed the invitations to opinion polls and a controversial campaign fundraising formula. The debate was canceled less than 24 hours before it was scheduled to take place.

Then came the allegations against Swalwell, sparking national interest in the sleeper California governor’s race. Political data strategist Paul Mitchell compared the moment to a dramatic scene in the middle of a “Real Housewives” season.

“Finally, someone overturned a table, threw wine at someone, and all the voters started paying attention,” he said.

Alf LaMont worked for Swalwell’s team as a communications specialist until his firm resigned on April 10 following news reports about allegations against the East Bay Democratic congressman.

LaMont said he was “crying” that night when he saw “organic, unplanned” pressure on Becerra on Threads and other social media sites. LaMont said he immediately called Becerra’s campaign team and signed up to work for him.

Webster, a content creator in Long Beach, also noticed online hype about Becerra.

“People were saying, ‘Let’s print yard signs, T-shirts,'” Webster said. “Or someone might say, ‘I’m going to start Gen X for Becerra,’ or ‘I’m going to start Millennials for Becerra.’

The pressure was so significant that Steyer’s campaign hired an intelligence firm that is part of a major Israeli company to study the practice.

The agency’s report found about 3,000 fake accounts that promoted Becerra on social media platforms X, Facebook and Instagram while criticizing Steyer, according to Steyer’s team. In total, the fake accounts generated 1.3 million views and 42,000 engagements, the report said.

Steyer spokesman Kevin Liao blames the network on Becerra’s team or his supporters. Becerra’s campaign denied any role and dismissed the influence of the fake accounts.

Previous opinion polls also offer a possible explanation for Becerra’s rise.

Even though he remains behind some pollsters, Becerra’s approval ratings compared to his disfavor ratings were better than those of his rivals, including Porter and Villaraigosa.

Swalwell also had high approval ratings, and when he stepped down, Becerra was “seen as a skeptic by those who remained,” Mitchell said.

A UC Berkeley Institute poll released Thursday shows voters are more likely to view Becerra favorably (44%) than unfavorably (38%). In contrast, 39% of voters viewed Steyer favorably and 43% unfavorably.

Becerra’s campaign attributes part of his April surgery to luck. His team has done a huge amount of advertising — the bulk of his remaining campaign money — placing spots on cable TV and the Internet since late March.

Time was a chance because of the chaos created by Swalwell.

Becerra’s ads portrayed him as calm and knowledgeable. One showed him speaking to a diverse group of young people about his record of challenging President Trump, suing his administration more than 100 times while serving as attorney general, and his plan to lower the cost of living for “the next generation.”

At the same time, LaMont’s team – which is also behind the political communications of Gov. Gavin Newsom – created an “earthy” and “roots” look to Becerra’s campaign ads and messaging. Words like “Tio” and “carne asada” emphasize the candidate’s Latino heritage.

Polls conducted after Swalwell’s exit showed Becerra gaining ground.

Special interest groups, including the California Medical Assn., which had supported Swalwell, switched to Becerra. A well-funded, independent political committee campaigning against Steyer — an effort aimed at helping Swalwell — also reached out to Becerra. Large corporations, including Chevron, Meta and McDonald’s, are ranked next.

Becerra seemed unprepared for the speed with which voters and others approached him. He stammered in quickly filmed videos asking for small dollar donations as his campaign sought to convert the people around him into donors.

He appeared strong during the first debate after Swalwell; he mistakenly referred to the “war on Iraq” instead of Iran during his initial response and defended the first of many attacks during the April 22 debate. During an interview with a KTLA-TV reporter in Los Angeles in early May, Becerra became defensive — asking if it was a “gotcha episode.”

Still, people flocked to town halls, including one in Oxnard in May, where he leaned on his “bad dad joke.” He greeted the large crowd with his familiar line, “Did you think you were coming to a Bad Bunny concert?”

Oxnard audience member Rose Castren, 68, told The Times she liked Becerra’s “calm and reassuring” style. The retired nurse watched a CNN debate in early May, where the candidates piled on Becerra in an attempt to undermine him.

“Other candidates seemed to come without attention,” he said. “And he didn’t.”

Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.